WHILE THE HUGE harms of coronavirus are well-known — death, illness, lockdowns, unemployment, recession, etc. — less attention has understandably been paid to the benefits.
Even clouds this dark have silver linings. Crises produce opportunities, innovation, and long-overdue reforms. 2020 will contain an extra year’s worth of mortality — but also a decade’s worth of progress, a leap into the future.
This article lists many benefits that could arise, so readers can consider how to maximize them, not just minimize harms. They cover a wide range of consequences. For example, lockdown has made many people (even drug gangsters) reassess their lives. Working from home has suddenly become normal, with less commuting, less cost, and more time for leisure and sleep. So people may move from cities to cheaper, more pleasant areas, or indeed countries.
Above all, coronavirus is a wake-up call — it could have been far worse, as governments and terrorists could engineer much deadlier viruses. So better preparation for the next pandemic could save the human race.
Experiment & evolve
Lockdowns have created an experiment, making people and organisations re-think how — and why — they do things. Some activities become impossible and are abandoned, e.g. travel. For others, alternatives are tried, e.g. video calls for meetings and doctor’s appointments; or innovations, such as businesses sharing employees. This experimentation will continue well beyond lockdown, as the new reality emerges.
Many of these changes will turn out to be improvements, and will stick. Others, e.g. government-funded furloughing and virtual horse races, are temporary fixes which will go — as will changes that didn’t work. And things that were dropped as unnecessary, e.g. pointless meetings and regulations, will stay dropped.
All of this involves prioritizing: deciding what outcomes matter, and which solutions now work best. Many things will modernize, simplify, and become more efficient. Cost-effectiveness is key, as incomes will shrink for a while.
Finally, lessons will be learned from what went badly in the pandemic, and steps taken to improve resilience and prepare for future crises.
We can also view the situation in terms of evolution. The world has been struck by a metaphorical meteor, threatening not just lives, but ways of life. Those organisations, jobs, and activities that are fittest for the new environment, or can adapt, will survive. Others that are no longer useful will die out, often replaced by innovations, to produce a new normal.
The benefits
The list below contains numerous potential long-term benefits of the pandemic. Some of these have started under lockdown, such as more volunteering. Others may come later, such as de-urbanization.
Some are mixed blessings, causing substantial harm as well; e.g. failures of non-viable businesses, charities and educational institutions. With some items it’s unclear, or a matter of opinion, whether it is a benefit or not, e.g. political changes. While many potential benefits are speculative, some are especially so — more hopes than predictions; e.g. better international cooperation, in reaction to the protectionism of the pandemic.
So I’ve qualified some entries accordingly:
- ± Benefit with substantial harm, or unclear whether it’s a benefit at all
- ? Very speculative
Disaster preparedness
Governments:
- Preparation for future pandemics
- ?Planning for existential risks (i.e. that could end the human race): if coronavirus prompts even a small improvement in this, it would vastly outweigh all of the pandemic’s harms*
Businesses & other organisations:
- Continuity planning
- Insurance
- Better contractual arrangements, e.g. force majeure clauses
- More robust supply chains, e.g. less just-in-time manufacturing
- ±Re-shoring
Individuals:
- Saving
- Insurance
- ±Survivalism
Spare capacity & redundancy:
- Essential services: e.g. healthcare, supermarkets
- Critical infrastructure
- Manufacturing
- Stockpiling essential supplies: e.g. food, fuel, medicines, vaccines, PPE
Government
Welfare state:
- ±Increased safety net for healthcare, unemployment, etc.
- ±Calls for Universal Basic Income: due to government-funded furloughing in some countries during lockdowns
Digitization & modernization:
- E-government
- Faster processing of benefit applications
- Remote operation & streamlining of courts
- Remote operation of parliaments
- Electronic & postal voting
Trust in government in some countries: due to effective pandemic control, job retention schemes, etc.
Change of government/leader in some countries: if they did not handle pandemic well
Less avoidance of tax and regulations, as a result of re-shoring
Cost-saving efficiencies due to higher debt & lower tax revenue
?Transparency of government
?More constructive national politics
?Improved international cooperation, e.g.:
- World Health Organisation
- Trade in essentials, e.g. food, energy, medical supplies
- Disaster preparedness (see above)
?Foreign aid:
- Healthcare aid
- Suspend debts
- ±Cancel debts
?Ceasefires during pandemic in conflict zones, perhaps continuing afterwards
?Wellbeing/happiness economics take-up, as the pandemic highlights dilemmas between lives, livelihoods, and quality of life
Health & science
Public healthcare funding:
- For spare capacity (see Disaster preparedness)
- ?Policies to promote health, diet & exercise, particularly to groups which had disproportionate coronavirus mortality
- ?Care home funding
International collaboration on health research
Faster health research processes:
- Disease research
- Vaccine & drug development
- ±Deregulation
- Journal publishing
Advances in virology, epidemiology, sociology etc. from coronavirus research
Infectious disease reduction, due to long-term hygiene improvements (e.g. handwashing, ?face masks):
- Common diseases, e.g. colds, flu, food poisoning
- Rarer, more serious diseases, e.g. some cancers
- Diseases not previously known to be infectious
- Future pandemics
Telehealth, including:
- Symptom checking apps
- Video consultations
- Online prescribing
- Treatments sent by post
- Online treatment & therapy
- Online self-help & automated therapy, e.g. for mental health
- Remote monitoring
Hence:
- More efficient, e.g. the UK’s NHS still relies on paper records
- Enables research on the data
Self-care:
- Physical health: e.g. diet, exercise, alcohol; highlighted by increased coronavirus mortality
- Mental health: highlighted by lockdowns and anxiety about health & jobs
- More cycling & walking: to avoid infection risk on public transport
- Sleep: improved by less commuting or shorter work hours (see Work)
- Personal health trackers: more usage & features, e.g. measuring temperature
Trust in science and medicine
Work
Remote work (usually office jobs):
- From home; cafes, shared workspaces etc. nearby; or while travelling elsewhere
- Move home to better/cheaper area or country (see Relocation & transport)
- Saves office cost, commuting time & cost
- Digital transformation of organisations, increasing efficiency
- More international employment & collaboration
- More work for disabled people
- Less ‘presenteeism’ (unnecessary attendance at work)
- Better rural Internet access
- ?Less office politics: as harder to do remotely
Change in work hours to suit worker (e.g. after reflection during lockdown), as cost/job-saving measure by employer, or to enable social distancing in workplaces/transport:
- Flexi-time
- ±Shorter hours / part-time work
- ±Shifts
- ±Weekends
- Remote workers paid for actions & results, not hours: as hours harder to track
Change of job/career:
- After reflection during lockdown
- ±Forced by unemployment
±Bullshit jobs cut
±Automation of jobs: as cost-saving measure, or to reduce risk of worker absence in future lockdowns/crises
Fewer, more efficient meetings: as video conferences, or due to simplifications under lockdown
Corporate eLearning
?Better worker terms/rights:
- Essential workers’ pay
- Casual workers
- Minimum wage
- Sick leave
Business
Innovation to deal with new circumstances, compete for reduced demand, or cut costs, e.g.:
- Extended supermarket hours, or dedicated hours for vulnerable groups, to reduce crowding (even long-term, if further pandemic waves are expected)
- Sharing employees between different businesses, in response to changes of demand
- Drive-in cinemas for social distancing
- Use of technology: for example…
Retail:
- ±More online groceries, Amazon, Alibaba, Deliveroo, etc.
- Automated warehouses and delivery (see Relocation & transport) to fulfill increased online orders
- More self-checkout in physical stores, to avoid infection risk
- Checkout-less stores, e.g. Amazon Go
- High Street/Main Street switch from products to services: due to competition from online retail
±Business failures — especially if were barely viable even before the pandemic, or have crowded spaces, e.g.:
- Department stores
- Restaurants, cafes, bars, pubs, hotels
- Cinemas, theatres
- Airlines, cruise ships
Relocation & transport
De-urbanization due to remote work (see Work):
- Lower urban property/real estate prices
- Lower commercial property/real estate prices, due to less office usage
- Lower inequalities between regions of countries
Remote workers moving country:
- To cheaper or more desirable locations
- ?Better governance, tax breaks, etc. to attract such workers
- ?Lower inequalities between countries
±Re-shoring (see Disaster preparedness)
Less transport:
- ±Less international freight: due to deglobalization
- Less work travel: due to less commuting, fewer in-person meetings & conferences, re-shoring (see Work)
- ±Less public transport: due to infection risk and restrictions on international travel (even long-term, if further pandemic waves expected)
- Hence more cycling & walking
- Less driving to stores: due to online shopping, infection risk in malls
- Less pollution (see Environment & nature)
- ±Lower fuel prices
- ±Staycations: replacing foreign travel
- ?Fewer road deaths — though train/bus passengers may switch to cars
?Delivery drones, self-driving vehicles, etc. to fulfill increased online orders
Environment & nature
Pollution:
- Less CO2 and air pollution
- ?Awareness of noise pollution: after urban silence & birdsong under lockdown
- ?Increased climate change concern
Animals:
- Reduction/banning of wild animal capture & sale
- Better conditions in live animal markets
- ?Better animal farming conditions
- Happier & healthier pets, as get more attention from home workers
Outdoor activities as social distancing measure (even long-term, if further pandemic waves are expected):
- Visiting parks, gardens, playgrounds, countryside
- Camping, hiking, fishing, boating, cycling, etc.
- Outdoor sports, swimming pools, gyms
- Open-air bars, restaurants, cafes
- Open-air concerts, cinemas, theatres
Education
Home schooling:
- ±Part-time: to enable social distancing in schools (even long-term, if further pandemic waves are expected)
- ?±Full-time
- Better parental understanding of children’s education, due to home schooling during lockdown
Distance learning:
- To support home schooling
- Online university courses
- ?Online exams
Re-assessment of education & educational institutions, including:
- ?What they are for
- In-person vs distance learning
- ?Private school & university fees
±Bankruptcies of some educational institutions
?±More continuous assessment following exam cancellations in e.g. UK
Adult education started under lockdown, e.g. learning an instrument or language
Leisure
More leisure time if stop commuting, or work shorter hours (see Work)
Entertainment tried/increased under lockdown, e.g.:
- Arts & culture: music, reading, podcasts, painting, etc.
- ±TV & video streaming: e.g. replacing cinema
- Games, puzzles & quizzes
- Web surfing
- ±Social media
Other pursuits & hobbies tried/increased under lockdown, e.g.
- Cooking
- Takeaways / Deliveroo: e.g. replacing restaurants
- Exercise
- DIY / home improvement
- Spring cleaning / decluttering
- Gardening
- Crafts
- Knitting & sewing
- Adult education (see Education)
- Self-improvement / personal development
- Meditation
- ±Prayer / worship
More online entertainment, e.g. live events, reaching wider audiences
Relationships
Relationships improved or renewed by lockdown:
- With partner
- With children
- With other family members, e.g. via video call
- Friendships via video call, social media, etc.
New online friendships/relationships under lockdown
More time with partner, family & friends if stop commuting, or work shorter hours (see Work)
±Divorce / break-up, brought to a head by lockdown
Charity & community
Volunteering, e.g. started under lockdown
?More charitable donations / philanthropy
Cost-saving efficiencies if donations fall due to lower incomes
Innovation to deal with new circumstances or cut costs
Support for local community & businesses: e.g. due to home workers spending more time where they live
±Charity closures — hopefully counterproductive or low effectiveness ones
Perspective
Re-evaluation of life, including:
- Meaning, purpose & values
- Priorities & inessentials
- Likes & dislikes
- Own strengths & weaknesses
- Opportunities & concerns
- Death
- Health: physical & mental
- Relationships
- Work, and work-life balance
- Money
Appreciation of:
- Essential services and key workers, e.g. in healthcare, social care, supermarkets, teaching, technology, mail & deliveries, transport, police
- Role and importance of government, science, media, business and charities
- Volunteers and helpful people
- The elderly
- Activities missed during lockdown, e.g. social contact, culture, sports, nature & the outdoors, tourism, cafes, bars, restaurants, religious worship
- Domesticity
- Simple pleasures
- Solitude
Attitudes:
- Kindness, consideration
- Public spirit, less individualism
- ±Less materialism / consumerism
- Resilience
- Self-reliance
- Flexibility
- Acceptance of mortality
- Acceptance of uncertainty
- Humility
- ?±Short-termism, living in the present
- ?Less concern about own appearance
- ?Less attention to celebrities
- ?Solidarity with other countries
Miscellaneous
±Deaths:
- ?±Beneficial if the world is overpopulated; or if humans, or those who died, are generally harmful or their lives not worthwhile; according to some (controversial) ethical theories
- ±Redistribution of wealth to younger generations
?End of physical cash due to infection risk:
- Traceability reduces crime & tax evasion
- Simplifies government emergency handouts
?Less crime, as criminals reassess their lives
?Better bank treatment of borrowers as continuation of special terms under lockdown
?Better rights for renters after evictions suspended during lockdown (e.g. in UK)
?More fact-checking on social media
Other resources
This list includes harmful consequences of coronavirus (as well as various of the above benefits).
In-depth discussion of some points is in a Politico article and FT series (paywall).
If you found this article half-interesting, please scroll to the bottom to share or subscribe.
*Toby Ord’s new book The Precipice estimates that the human race will only last another 600 years or so before it is wiped out, or permanently crippled, by a pandemic (probably a bioweapon) or other existential risk.
If coronavirus makes the world prepare slightly better for such disasters, thereby reducing the risk by say 1%, it would extend the human race by 600 years × 1% = 6 years. The world population is forecast to reach about 11 billion, so this would save 6 years × 11 billion = 66 billion years of life.
If coronavirus kills 10 million people worldwide, each losing 10 years of life on average, 100 million years of life will be lost. This is a minute fraction of the benefit from improved disaster preparedness.
Photos by Shutterstock, Viktor Hanacek on Picjumbo